HK IPO Subscription Return Calculator
Estimate your IPO allotment probability and expected profit — Pool A/B dual-pool model calibrated from real HK IPO data.
How the model works
- • Pool A (≤600 lots): lottery zone → proportional zone when lots ≥ oversubRatio
- • Pool B (>600 lots): proportional allotment at ~0.9× rate vs oversubscription
- • Calibrated: P(1 lot @ 100× oversub) ≈ 1.82% per applicant (from real 兆威机电 02692.HK data)
Subscription Parameters
Slider up to HK$100; type directly for up to HK$1,000
1 lot = HK$5,000
Slider up to 2,000; type directly for up to 20,000 lots
Slider up to 2,000×; type directly for up to 5,000×
Used to reverse-calc public offering size and 7-tier allotment table below. Pull live values from the IPO tracker.
Total Subscription
HK$25,000
Own Capital Needed
HK$25,000
Per Lot Cost
HK$5,000
Financing Cost
N/A
Allotment Estimate
Pool A lottery zone. Apply 100 lots or more to enter the proportional zone.
Reverse-calculated 7-tier allotment (馭勢 method)
Public offering ≈ HK$2.00 亿 (margin total / oversub). Pool A cap (甲尾) = 1,000 lots @ HK$5M ceiling. Estimated 1,750 Pool B applicants (祖训: 4000亿 ≈ 3.5万人).
祖训 verdict：Margin split by large players → consider Pool B (head tier still has decent odds)
• Method: 公开发行募集金额 = 孖展总额 / 超额倍数 → derive total public lots → split A:B 50/50 (clawback @ ≥100×) → tier probabilities via Pool A calibrated formula + Pool B proportional (0.9× drag).
• 乙头 = 甲尾 + 1 lot. 乙1/2/3/4 = 乙头 × {1.5, 2, 3, 5} (HK Pool B ladder). At high oversub, all B tiers stay in ballot — 必中 1 lot requires 钉头锤 N (entitled ≥ 5).
Per 1 Lot — Listing Day Return Scenarios
Lot cost: HK$5,000 (own capital: HK$5,000)
| Scenario | Listing Price | Gross Profit | Net Profit | Return on Capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5% | HK$5.25 | +HK$250 | +HK$250 | +5.0% |
| +10% | HK$5.50 | +HK$500 | +HK$500 | +10.0% |
| +20% | HK$6.00 | +HK$1,000 | +HK$1,000 | +20.0% |
| +50% | HK$7.50 | +HK$2,500 | +HK$2,500 | +50.0% |
| +100% | HK$10.00 | +HK$5,000 | +HK$5,000 | +100.0% |
Return on capital is based on own capital per lot (HK$5,000). Excludes brokerage fees. Multiply by allotted lots for total expected return.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does HK IPO allotment work?+
HK IPOs use a dual-pool system: Pool A (small applicants applying ≤500 lots) and Pool B. When an IPO is oversubscribed by 15×+, shares are clawed back from Pool B to Pool A to guarantee at least 1 lot per small applicant. This makes applying 1-5 lots the most efficient strategy for retail investors when an IPO is expected to be hot.
What oversubscription ratio should I expect for hot IPOs?+
Hot HK IPOs typically see 100× to 2000× oversubscription. "Average" hot IPOs are 100-500×; extremely hot ones (like Meituan, BubbleMart) can exceed 1000× or even 5000×. At 5000× oversubscription, even applying for 600 lots (甲尾) gives only a ~12% chance of allotment.
Is margin financing worth it for HK IPOs?+
Margin financing amplifies your return on capital but adds interest cost (typically 7-12% annual rate × 5 days ≈ 0.1-0.16% of the financed amount). For a +20% IPO pop, using 80% margin turns a 20% gross return into ~100% return on your own capital — but if the IPO breaks issue price (drops), losses are also amplified. Only use margin for IPOs with very strong fundamentals.
Which brokers support HK IPO applications?+
Major brokers for HK IPO applications include moomoo, Tiger Brokers, Longbridge, Futu, and IBKR. moomoo and Tiger Brokers are most popular for retail investors due to low fees and easy margin financing options. An HKID or valid SFC-recognized identity document is required.
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This calculator provides estimates only. Actual allotment depends on final subscription data and HKEX ballot results. Past IPO performance does not guarantee future results. moomoo and TradingView are affiliate links.